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FRM杂谈丨在不确定性中,德意志银行认为2019年前景光明

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 德意志银行美洲财富管理公司首席投资官兼董事总经理迪帕克·普里 (Deepak Puri)认为,强劲的非必需消费品支出或能避免美国陷入衰退。

“在非必需消费品领域,消费者们更喜欢在酒店、餐馆和娱乐场所花钱。” 普里在1月7日向媒体发表的演讲中表示,“平均时薪和劳动力参与度表现良好,这说明美国经济呈现积极的就业态势。低失业率和油价下跌对普通消费者而言相当于税收减免,因此应该会进一步刺激消费力。”

预期的银行存款上升能够推动贷款增长,这对未来12个月经济也是利好消息。但是,普瑞与其他观察人士一样,就可能的信贷质量下降对经济产生的影响持谨慎态度。

“对于整体风险资产而言,曾经相当宽松的货币政策现在开始变得紧张”,而企业盈利增长正在放缓。标准普尔500指数公司2018年的盈利同比增长28%, 而根据First Call的预测数据2019年盈利将下降至7.5%。

“股权估值变得越来越有吸引力,”普里表示。他预测“这对五年后的股权回报有重大影响,使得股票市场对投资者比六个月前更具吸引力。”

中等波动率区间

But likely to accompany rising equity markets is volatility.

“Historically for the last 10 years, we had been in a low volatility environment where the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below 12,” Puri observed. “Now we are entering a mid-volatility regime between 12 and 18.”

The investment firm therefore favors structured products in regions and sectors that benefit from volatility, such as financials, industrials, IT, communication services and healthcare.

“Some of these healthcare companies pay dividends, so this could be a year where dividend-paying companies become appealing to investors again,” Puri said.

市场友好结果

He sees insurance companies, after dealing with major weather events in 2018, bouncing back on the strength of premium increases.

Political or geopolitical risks on his radar include those stemming from the U.K.´;s Brexit, sanctions on Russia, and the new administration of Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.

“We´;re keeping an eye on any trade escalation between China and the U.S,” Puri said. “If trade uncertainty between China and the U.S. were to fade away, industrials is the direct way to play a resolution in the U.S.-China trade war, because when you look at the industrial component, in aerospace and defense, it is likely the most hit by the rhetoric.”

Despite the volatile Washington environment and the border wall controversy, “most of the administration´;s policies have been quite market-friendly, especially the tax cuts, even though that´;s been fading out a bit,” Puri said. “In lieu of more tax cuts that can propel the market, we are waiting for the next catalyst that will cause equity markets to rise.”

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